Know your edge before you pay for the eval.

Prop firms sell a lottery ticket priced by your own statistics. This calculator runs 10,000 simulated evaluations of your exact win rate, payoff, and pace against the firm's exact target and drawdown rules — and tells you the probability you pass, what getting funded will really cost, and whether the account is worth buying at all.

Everything runs locally in your browser. Nothing is uploaded, tracked, or stored. This is the older, firm-generic tool — the current state-based engine lives at the optimal risk calculator.

Firm preset

Starting points only — firms change rules often. Verify before you buy.

Evaluation rules

Firm rules

The rules that end most accounts before the drawdown ever does. Set any limit to 0 to switch it off.

Your statistics

Use real numbers from your journal or backtest — not your goals.
Expected value of this account
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P(pass eval)
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P(blow eval)
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hit drawdown
Median days to pass
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Evals per funded
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expected attempts
Expected cost to get funded
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Expected funded-phase payout
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Median wait for your first payout
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When evaluations end — passes vs blowups, by trading day

How this works

The simulation
Each of the 10,000 runs plays out one evaluation day by day. Every day draws your average number of trades; every trade wins at your win rate for roughly your average win, or loses roughly your average loss (the variability setting jitters each outcome so results aren't unrealistically uniform). After each trade or each day — depending on the drawdown type — the account is checked against the trailing drawdown floor, and against the profit target. A run ends the moment it passes, breaches, or hits 400 trading days.
How trailing drawdown is modeled
The floor starts at start − drawdown and ratchets up with the account's best balance: floor = max(floor, ref − drawdown). With the cap on (how most futures firms work), the reference stops at the starting balance — so once you're in profit the floor quits chasing you, and the eval behaves like a static drawdown from your high-water mark at start. With the cap off, the floor trails your profits all the way up, which is dramatically harder to survive. End-of-day checks the floor once per day; intraday checks after every trade.
Daily loss limits, consistency rules, and payout gates
Daily loss limit. The day's running P&L is checked after every trade. Hitting the limit either ends that day's trading — the common soft breach, where the account survives and resumes next session — or fails the account outright. A soft limit is not free: it caps how fast you can dig out of a bad day, so it stretches evals out even while it prevents blowups.

Consistency. Firms cap how much of your profit may come from a single day. Topstep's Combine wants your best day under 50% of the profit target; Apex and LucidFlex measure the best day against total profit. Both come out as the same arithmetic, and that is what's modeled here: your effective target becomes max(target, best day ÷ consistency %). So one outsized day doesn't win the eval — it raises the bar, and the account has to keep trading, still exposed to the drawdown, to earn the difference. That's the mechanism behind the "reached the target and still failed" number above.

Payout gates. The funded account can only withdraw once enough trading days have passed, and the consistency test is applied again at each request — against the profit earned since the previous payout, which also resets your best day, the way firms measure it. Anything you leave in the account stays as cushion above the trailing floor.

Watch what happens when you change the payout frequency. Under a trail capped at the starting balance, money left in the account is permanent distance from a floor that has stopped moving — but whether that is worth anything depends entirely on how big your losses are next to the room you have. On the settings this page loads with (roughly $100 losses against $3,000 of room) the account is already safe: stretching payouts from every 5 days to every 60 moves survival at day 250 only from 79% to 84%, and you collect less ($3,270 → $3,002) because you spend the window waiting instead of withdrawing. Keep the same edge and the same rules but scale up to $300 losses and it inverts hard — every 5 days leaves 9% of accounts alive and pays $26.6k, every 60 days leaves 62% alive and pays $51.0k. Switch the trail to uncapped and the buffer stops helping in either case, because the floor simply follows your profit up. None of this is advice: money inside the account is money you cannot spend, cannot recover if the firm changes its rules or fails, and are still risking.

Preset values are the firms' published numbers as of August 2026 and are starting points, not gospel — all three have rewritten these rules within the past year. Check the current terms before you buy anything.
Cost to get funded, payout, and EV
Passing probability implies the expected number of attempts (1 / P(pass)). Each attempt costs the monthly fee for as many months as the average attempt lasts, plus a one-time activation fee when you finally pass. The funded phase is then simulated with the same statistics and the same drawdown until it breaches, sweeping profits above a $1,000 cushion each month at your payout split. Account EV = expected funded payout − expected cost to get funded. A negative EV means the firm's fees are priced above your edge — you are the product.
Honest limitations
Trades are drawn independently, but real losing streaks cluster — this is the big one, and it makes P(pass) optimistic. On my own trading statistics this page says roughly 83% where a block bootstrap over five years of actual trades says roughly 72%. Scaling plans and contract limits aren't modeled, and firm rules are simplified to the settings above — real terms carry exceptions this doesn't capture. Firms change rules and prices constantly; verify everything against the firm's current terms. If your inputs come from a small sample of trades, the output inherits that uncertainty.